Looking Back at 2024: Assessing the Accuracy of Foodservice Trend Forecasting

Below is a summary of each section of the 2024 Predictions, covering areas such as sustainability, foodservice, and global flavors. For each prediction, you will find the original forecast for 2024 and an evaluation of its accuracy. Reflecting on these predictions helps gain insight into the key developments that unfolded in the food and beverage industry throughout 2024. This analysis provides a better understanding of current market dynamics and where different brands stand amidst the ongoing trends leading into 2025.

Let’s take a closer look.

FOODSERVICE

What’s on the Menu in 2024?

Technomic states that foodservice is growing, but operators and menus need to remain innovative and competitive

1. Leveling of Growth and Consumer Behavior Changes

PREDICTION: The industry’s turbulence following the pandemic would stabilize, returning to modest single-digit growth. Limited-service restaurants would thrive from unit expansion, while full-service establishments would need to offer compelling prices and value to remain competitive.

ASSESSMENT: This prediction appears to be accurate. Despite economic challenges, 2024 has seen more consistent growth compared to the tumultuous pandemic years. Limited-service restaurants have continued to attract demand as consumers seek affordable dining options. Sit-down restaurants that adapted with value-driven experiences and competitive pricing have fared better amid rising costs.

2. Shift in Consumer Dining Occasions

PREDICTION: Consumers would transition their spending from delivery to takeout/drive-thru, with breakfast emerging as a popular meal choice and brunch surpassing dinner as a weekend social and budget-friendly option.

ASSESSMENT: This transition has been partly accurate. While delivery remains in demand, increasing fees and economic pressures have steered some consumers towards more cost-effective takeout or drive-thru options. However, the predicted breakfast surge has been moderate, with lunch and dinner still maintaining strong appeal during the week. Brunch has seen growth, particularly among urban dwellers and younger consumers, but it hasn’t entirely replaced dinner on weekends.

3. Impact of Extreme Weather

PREDICTION: Rising extreme weather events, exacerbated by El Niño, would pose challenges for foodservice operations, necessitating more weather-aware planning and adjustments, including kitchen redesigns and climate-suited menus.

ASSESSMENT: Extreme weather has significantly impacted foodservice in 2024. Heatwaves and storms across the US have disrupted operations, emphasizing the need for flexible business models and adaptable kitchens. Operators have increasingly focused on climate-resilient practices with energy-efficient enhancements and modified menus to address environmental challenges. While the supply chain has felt some effects, improved sourcing strategies have helped mitigate disruptions.

4. More Detailed Menus

PREDICTION: Menus would become more intricate, highlighting specific ingredients (e.g., Granny Smith apples instead of generic apples) and regional origins.

ASSESSMENT: This trend has materialized, particularly in upscale and niche restaurants where consumers seek premium experiences and transparency. Specific ingredient listings have gained popularity, catering to consumer preferences for quality and authenticity. The attention to detail extends to cocktails and specialty items as well.

5. Offbeat, TikTok-Inspired Dishes

PREDICTION: Following the “pickle palooza” of 2023, more unique and attention-grabbing food creations inspired by TikTok trends would emerge, featuring unconventional flavor pairings, exotic ingredients, and even unique elements like fruit skins or blood.

ASSESSMENT: This prediction holds true. Social media platforms like TikTok continue to influence menu offerings, with quirky and bold dishes generating interest and intrigue. While the extreme elements like blood and fruit skins remain niche, they have found a place in avant-garde and experimental culinary settings.

6. Technology in Restaurants

PREDICTION: Practical restaurant technology would become more integrated, with AI supporting predictive tasks such as staffing and supply chain management, and kitchen automation focusing on safety and efficiency.

ASSESSMENT: The adoption of restaurant technology has continued in 2024, especially in online ordering systems linked to kitchens and AI applications in customer service (e.g., chatbots). AI-driven supply chain and labor management have proven beneficial in navigating staffing and cost issues. Kitchen automation has progressed, but smaller operators face challenges in adoption due to initial costs.

7. 2024: The Year of the Tomato

PREDICTION: Tomatoes would take center stage as the ingredient of the year, appearing in unexpected forms like desserts and alcoholic beverages, and gaining prominence through global variations.

ASSESSMENT: This prediction largely holds true. Tomatoes have been prominent in global dishes, sauces, and innovative drinks. Innovative uses like tomato jams or meat substitutes have stood out in the plant-based food scene. While not ubiquitous, tomatoes have been a consistent theme in culinary innovations throughout 2024.

Conclusion

The foodservice trend predictions made in December 2023 for 2024 have been mostly accurate, especially in areas like technology integration, weather resilience, and shifts in consumer behavior towards more cost-effective dining options. Some predictions, such as the brunch impact or use of eccentric ingredients, have been less widespread but reflect broader trends in specific market segments. Overall, the industry’s adaptability and resilience have aligned well with these forecasts despite ongoing economic and environmental challenges.

SUSTAINABILITY

How Consumers, Food Processors Approach Sustainability
Two industry experts delve into sustainable demand and industry strategies for 2024

1. Consumer Attitudes Toward Sustainable Foods
PREDICTION: There will be a continued focus on sustainability-labeled consumer packaged goods (CPG), with attributes like “Non-GMO,” “Sustainability Certified,” and “Organic” experiencing growth.
ASSESSMENT: This prediction holds true, as data from Circana indicates growth in these attributes in terms of market share and penetration. The heightened consumer awareness of climate-related events suggests that sustainability concerns remain high, supporting the predicted trend.

Explore more Sustainability Trends 2024 predictions and assessments.

FLAVOR TRENDS

New Tastes, Trends for 2024

The Specialty Food Association Trendspotters identify a diverse range of trends for the $194 billion specialty food industry

1. Beverage Innovation: Functional, Single-Serve, and Low-Sugar

PREDICTION: Beverage sales would soar with the introduction of innovations like single-serve non-alcoholic fizzy drinks, coffees, teas, and broths incorporating functional ingredients for energy, clarity, or relaxation, with minimal added sugar, salt, or artificial additives.

ASSESSMENT: This prediction has been accurate. Functional beverages, especially in the health and wellness sector, have gained traction in 2024. Drinks offering additional benefits such as adaptogens, nootropics, or collagen have been well-received. The popularity of non-alcoholic and low-sugar beverages, particularly among health-conscious younger consumers, continues to rise. Global flavors, including tropical ingredients and herbal infusions, are also making an impact in the beverage industry.

Check out more Flavor Trends 2024 predictions and assessments. Available Oct. 17, 2024.

BEVERAGE CONSUMER TRENDS

Predictions for a Thrifty, Sustainable, Health-Driven Future

Imbibe predicts that cost-effective innovations, sustainability efforts, effective products, and women’s health will dominate in 2024

1. Cost Savings and Small Luxuries

PREDICTION: Due to economic uncertainties, consumers will seek budget-friendly dining options that deliver quality and luxury feel, prompting many to switch to lower-priced venues or cut back on non-essential grocery purchases.

ASSESSMENT: This prediction has held true. Inflation and economic challenges have made consumers more price-sensitive in 2024. Many opt for cost-effective options while still desiring quality and indulgence. The rise of budget-friendly meal kits, gourmet experiences, and subscription services focusing on small indulgences on a budget have been evident. Consumers continue to navigate trade-offs, splurging on certain items while cutting back in other areas, aligning with the prediction.

Check out more Beverage Consumer Trends 2024 predictions and assessments. Available Oct. 18, 2024.

GLOBAL FOOD & BEVERAGE TRENDS

Top Global Food and Drink Trends for 2024

Mintel reveals significant trends shaping the global food and drink industries in the near future

1. Trust the Process: Greater Transparency and Minimally Processed Foods

PREDICTION: Mintel predicted a consumer demand for more transparency in food processing, leading to an emphasis on minimally processed products. Brands would focus on how processing methods enhance nutrition, sustainability, and food safety, resulting in products emphasizing positive processing aspects, especially with upcycled ingredients.

ASSESSMENT: This prediction has largely come true. In 2024, there has been increased scrutiny of ultra-processed foods due to health concerns and heightened awareness of the negative impacts of highly processed items. Consumers are gravitating towards minimally processed products, particularly those showcasing sustainable practices and improved nutrition, reflecting the upward trend in environmentally and health-conscious choices. Brands are more transparent about the benefits of processes such as fermentation, cold-pressing, and pasteurization, maintaining product quality while offering health benefits.

In addition, upcycled foods—products made from ingredients that would otherwise go to waste—have gained momentum in 2024, aligning with the increasing demand for sustainable and eco-friendly options. This trend caters to consumers and brands seeking to reduce waste, optimize nutrition, making Mintel’s prediction highly accurate.

Check out more Global Food & Beverage Trends 2024 predictions and assessments. Available Oct. 21, 2024.

FOOD & BEVERAGE CONSUMER TRENDS 

Top 10 Food & Beverage Consumer Trends in 2024

Innova Market Insights highlights consumer interest in key benefits, ingredients, and transparency

1. Taking the Spotlight

PREDICTION: Innova predicted that particular ingredients or product attributes—such as popular flavors, textures, and health benefits—would feature prominently on packaging and capture consumer attention. Ingredients like protein and mushrooms were expected to be significant.

ASSESSMENT: This prediction has proven to be accurate. Consumers respond well to packaging that highlights key ingredients, especially when they align with health and wellness trends. The rise of functional ingredients like protein remains strong, with products boasting high-protein content continuing to grow. Mushrooms are finding increased use in functional foods and plant-based products due to their Nutritional value and adaptogenic properties.

Check out more Global Food & Beverage Trends 2024 predictions and assessments. Available Oct. 22, 2024.

HEALTH & WELLNESS TRENDS

2024 Health and Wellness Trends

Probiotics and fermented foods have been rising in popularity as immune boosters

Functional Foods and Flavors

PREDICTION: Consumers are seeking out functional foods that offer more than just nutrition. Foods providing health benefits—such as immune support and digestive health—while also delivering flavor and excitement are gaining popularity.

ASSESSMENT: This prediction has been accurate. Consumers are increasingly interested in functional foods addressing specific health needs like gut health, immune support, and cognitive benefits.

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Emil Kovács

Emil Kovács graduated from the Journalism program at Eötvös Loránd University in Hungary. During his journalism studies, he focused on data journalism, investigative reporting, and multimedia storytelling. He gained experience by writing for the university’s student newspaper, where he gained attention for his articles on social issues. After graduation, Emil began working as a reporter at a European news agency, where he conducts in-depth analyses of international news and current events.