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Editor’s Note: To help food and beverage processors improve new product development strategy, Prepared Foods brings you a three-part series about interpreting trends from independent consultant, Suzy Badaracco, founder of Culinary Tides. This is the first of three installments.
In any industry, you rely on data to help you make the next bold business move.
Whether you are a retail store, manufacturer, ingredient supplier, or a foodservice operator looking to capitalize on the next food or beverage trend, having relevant data allows you to make better decisions that affect your bottom line.
So you gather all the data.
Internal data is based on what you are seeing and forecasting in your current business; and external data pulled from data houses give you a variety of data points for you to comb through.
But with all that data, it can be overwhelming trying to sift through the information so you can make your next move. Take the wrong step, and it could cost you valuable time and hundreds of thousands or even millions in product development and marketing, only to miss the mark or be behind the curve on a trend that is on its way out.
We get it, which is why we are helping you look at your data in a new way so you can maximize any trend opportunity and increase your bottom line.
In this three-part series, we’ll explore you can navigate trends. This first installment is about studying food trends from multiple angles as an essential strategy to stay ahead.
The Problem: Narrow Viewpoint of Trend Analysis
Who doesn’t love a good puzzle? No matter what picture your puzzle pieces create, each puzzle piece is unique and shows only part of the final picture.
Imagine that all the data you gather to determine your next move is like a puzzle. Each piece has its own information that gives you insight into what is happening in the industry, representing data from a single source. That might be sales figures, consumer surveys, or perhaps a new technology. However, when you focus solely on this single puzzle piece, you miss out on the entire picture the finished puzzle creates that represents the complete story of a trend.
The danger lies in the momentary snapshot. Being stuck in a moment of time where you only see what’s happening now and missing the broader context. Making business decisions based on this limited viewpoint can often lead companies to spend time developing a product while missing the bigger picture—the actual trajectory of a trend.
Take a Broader, Holistic Approach
No one wants to misread or lag behind a trend, and then lose out on potential revenue.
But when you look at one “puzzle piece” of data to determine your next new product, marketing position, or strategy plan, you end up chasing your competition and playing defense. Meanwhile, you need to straighten out your navigation.
Look at the bigger picture and shift your viewpoint from looking at a “puzzle piece” of data to looking at the completed puzzle picture. By analyzing all the data you make better business decisions. This puts you on offense (instead of defense) and sets a clear course. By cross analyzing different data types, you can shift from reacting to trends—and instead anticipate and even shape them.
So, how do you look at data and make business decisions that put you in control of the trend?
Look beyond what sold well yesterday and understand the drivers of those sales. Look beyond what consumers say in a survey. Consumers can only tell you what they did yesterday, not where they will be tomorrow. To get ahead of consumers it’s important to stop looking at them and start studying their drivers.
Factors such as evolving technologies, health drivers, and governmental influences play pivotal roles in a trend’s trajectory and longevity. An integrated understanding allows for better food and beverage innovation, creating products that create customer loyalty and capitalize on their needs and desires.
Your goal? Stop developing more “one-hit” wonders and chasing after the next thing (only to be six months behind). With a holistic approach to trend analysis, you’ll be able to anticipate and capitalize on a trend or have enough insight to decide to sidestep it altogether.
Understanding food trends comprehensively isn’t just good for innovation; it’s good for the bottom line.
Grasping the full story can help you predict the longevity and trajectory of a trend. The foresight enables you to invest wisely, ensuring products have longer lifecycles and are positioned correctly for your customers.
Case Study: Plant-Based Proteins
Here’s an example involving one of our clients. A few years ago, many companies jumped on the plant protein trend, particularly with products like plant-based burgers.
Many companies made meat alternative decisions based on immediate sales data—but not the drivers behind the trend. In contrast, those companies that looked at the entire puzzle picture—examining factors such as government stance, health implications, consumer drivers and long-term adoption potential—could see the inevitable decline in interest in these products.
Our client was able to view the entire puzzle and recognize that sales were dropping in the plant-based meat market as consumers became more discerning about health and sustainability claims. As a result, this company was able to make a more informed business decision that impacted their bottom line (see upcoming second article installment).
Conclusion
In the dynamic world of food trends, you have to look at the big picture with a broad lens. You’ve got to look at the completed puzzle, not just a puzzle piece.
While many might consider a handful of data points to make business decisions, the more data points you can cross-analyze and consider when looking at a trend, the more confident you are in making business decisions.
Understanding food industry trends isn’t a luxury; it’s a necessity. It is the difference between successfully navigating a trend and constantly playing catch-up or wasting money because you misread a trend or engaged a trend that is on its way out.
About the Author
Suzy Badaracco, President, Culinary Tides, Inc. Culinary Tides, Inc. was created in 2005 and has grown to include a team dedicated to pattern recognition. Using a unique compilation of military intelligence and chaos analytics, they have been able to successfully predict and profile trends affecting the food industry including food, beverage, consumer, health, government, technology, packaging, adversary & ally, and competitor trends. Culinary Tides, Inc. is a private forecasting think tank which engages with all facets of the food industry including food service, retail, ingredient manufacturers, and suppliers.
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Emil Kovács graduated from the Journalism program at Eötvös Loránd University in Hungary. During his journalism studies, he focused on data journalism, investigative reporting, and multimedia storytelling. He gained experience by writing for the university’s student newspaper, where he gained attention for his articles on social issues. After graduation, Emil began working as a reporter at a European news agency, where he conducts in-depth analyses of international news and current events.
