A New Game unfolding in Central Asia

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election nears, international attention is fixated on domestic issues, the U.S. stance on Ukraine, and its mishandling of the genocide in Gaza. Yet, beneath the surface, a strategic shift in U.S. foreign policy is quietly taking shape. Walter Russell Mead’s recent op-ed, “The Return of Hamiltonian Statecraft,” suggests a recalibration of American foreign policy toward economic pragmatism, patriotism and enlightened realism. While Mead’s analysis might appear as mere academic speculation, it signals a profound shift for those attuned to the subtleties of U.S. foreign policy.

Central Asia, often overshadowed in broader geopolitical discussions, may be the key to understanding this strategic realignment. While maritime areas have dominated discussions about U.S.-China rivalry – most notably the tensions in the South China Sea – China’s historical foreign policy tradition is grounded in territorial influence. Unlike its maritime ambitions, China’s focus is increasingly on Central Asia, a region of immense strategic importance.

Chinese economic expansion

At first glance, the U.S. strategy to counter Chinese expansion seems concentrated on maritime disputes, particularly in the South China Sea, where tensions have been a recurring theme for over 15 years. While focusing on maritime routes is understandable, it’s essential to recognize that China’s historical foreign policy is rooted in land-based territorial influence rather than maritime power. Despite Zheng He’s notable 15th-century voyages, traditional Chinese foreign policy has emphasized securing and extending influence over contiguous land areas. Incompatible with this Chinese way of conducting external relations, China first attempted to exert its economic and political power in Central Asia in the Deng Xiaoping era despite Mao’s restrained understanding of economics based on the Soviet legacy.

In this context, Central Asia emerges as a critical focal point for China. Following the global economic downturn in 2008 and the eurozone debt crisis in 2010, China seized the opportunity to enhance its role on the world stage. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched in 2013, exemplifies this strategy. This ambitious infrastructure and investment project aims to boost trade and connectivity across Eurasia, with Central Asia serving as a key transit region.

From 2013 to 2023, China invested over $40 billion in Central Asia to improve infrastructure and strengthen regional ties. During this period, bilateral trade between China and Central Asian countries increased significantly, rising by over 50% from $30 billion in 2013 to $50 billion in 2022. China’s investments are notably concentrated in energy resources, reflecting its strategic interests. In Kazakhstan, China invested more than $20 billion, with the major project being the China-Kazakhstan oil pipeline. In Uzbekistan, Chinese investments exceeded $10 billion, focusing on modernizing oil and gas infrastructure. In Turkmenistan, China invested around $8 billion, primarily in the Central Asia-China gas pipeline, which is vital for transporting natural gas from Turkmenistan to China. China is now the largest buyer of Turkmen gas, receiving billions of cubic meters annually. China’s economic growth heavily relies on energy imports, with oil and gas constituting 29% of its energy mix. Central Asia plays a crucial role, accounting for nearly 30% of China’s oil and gas imports. Given the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, China’s dependence on Central Asia for energy security is increasing.

Additionally, China must secure its western borders in the event of American containment and maritime pressure. As demonstrated by recent developments in early March 2024, the U.S. is prepared to use all available tools to constrain China’s growing influence in the East and South China Seas. In this context, Central Asia becomes crucial for China, serving as its primary overland gateway to global markets via railways and roads. Consequently, revitalizing the “Silk Road” is essential for China’s strategic access and economic expansion.

U.S. strategic shift

Following the fall of the Soviet Union, the U.S. aimed to influence Central Asia to shape the world according to its vision. However, this strategy faced setbacks. The 9/11 attacks led to heightened security concerns, labeling Central Asia as a key region for counterterrorism, particularly in the Ferghana Valley. Initially, the U.S. extended support to these relatively fragile states, establishing military bases in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to fill the vacuum left by the Soviet collapse and to counterbalance Russia and China.

The strategy saw mixed results, and the U.S. presence in the region was scaled back under the Trump and Biden administrations. The final withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan on Aug. 30, 2021, marked a shift toward a revised containment policy. In September 2023, for the first time, U.S. President Joe Biden met with leaders of all five Central Asian republics in a C5+1 summit. Following this, the Biden Administration committed an additional $25 million to expand the Economic Resilience Initiative in Central Asia (ERICEN), aiming to boost private-sector investment.

This shift in strategy is significant. In October 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a similar C5+1 meeting with the region’s leaders, and in May 2023, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted a similar summit. The latest TIFA Council Joint Statement in 2024 underscores the U.S.’s commitment to strengthening trade and investment ties with Central Asia. The agreement emphasizes regulatory reforms, enhanced supply chain resilience, and transparency to attract foreign investment. It also focuses on harmonizing customs procedures, improving digital infrastructure and adopting global Food safety standards. By promoting economic diversification and regional integration, this framework aims to reduce reliance on Russia and China while fostering a more competitive and sustainable economic environment in Central Asia. Another reason the U.S. has chosen to follow this geo-economic strategy is mistrust in the Transatlantic alliance precisely because the EU is not acting in solidarity with the U.S. to counterbalance the Russo-Chinese alliance.

Subtle art of containment

The U.S. strategy can be seen through the lens of B. H. Liddell Hart’s insight into using decoys effectively: “The most effective way to use a decoy is to make the enemy believe that the decoy is the main objective, thereby diverting their attention and resources away from your true goal.” In this context, the U.S. has subtly shifted its focus from overt maritime competition to a more comprehensive approach that includes Central Asia’s geopolitical significance.

For too long, both officials and scholars have emphasized the importance of maritime strategies to counter China’s growing influence. However, the Western approach extends beyond Alfred Mahan’s “naval supremacy” thesis; it also incorporates Halford Mackinder’s concept of “terrestrial supremacy.” Given China’s historical emphasis on land-based influence, Central Asia emerges as a crucial battleground. In this geopolitical game, the U.S. strategy encourages China to focus its resources on maritime endeavors, potentially weakening its influence in Central Asia.

Recent surveys highlight growing dissatisfaction with Chinese involvement in the region. A 2021 Central Asia Barometer survey revealed that 47% of respondents in Kazakhstan expressed concerns about Chinese investment projects, up from 35% in 2019. In Kyrgyzstan, negative perceptions of Chinese economic activities rose from 30% in 2018 to 45% in 2021, with significant protests against the Chinese-owned Kumtor gold mine reflecting this discontent. Furthermore, China’s grand transformation project – the Belt and Road Initiative – is no longer widely accepted. A 2022 report indicated that nearly 40% of Tajik respondents felt Chinese investments were not beneficial for local communities. The backlash against China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its “debt diplomacy” is evident, with data from the Financial Times showing that by 2022, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan had about 40% and 30% of their external debt owed to China, respectively.

New era for Central Asia

Central Asia stands at a crossroads. The U.S. encourages the region to leverage its strategic position and support countering China’s assertive policies. This period of shifting alliances and emerging opportunities could potentially lead to a more prosperous and independent Central Asia. If managed adeptly, Central Asian nations could emerge stronger, fostering greater regional integration and stability.

In this evolving geopolitical landscape, the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) could play a pivotal role akin to a new European Union, enhancing regional cooperation and fraternity. As the great game of geopolitics unfolds, Central Asia’s role becomes increasingly central, making it a critical focus for both U.S. and global strategies.